Commercial real estate is bracing for another tough year, with a projected $480 billion wipeout in 2024 following a staggering $590 billion loss in 2023, according to a recent report by Fortune magazine. Capital Economics’ deputy chief property economist, Kiran Raichura, highlighted the perfect storm of weak growth and high-interest rates as the primary factors contributing to this grim outlook.
The Numbers Game
Capital Economics defines the commercial real estate market’s size as over $5 trillion, with a 2022 year-end estimate. The 11% decline in property values in 2023 amounted to approximately $590 billion, while a further 10% fall expected in 2024 is estimated at $480 billion.
Some sectors, notably offices, are experiencing heightened distress. Net operating income growth, the total revenue minus operating costs, is expected to soften in 2024. The industrial rent boom is predicted to transition to more ‘normal’ growth rates, and apartment rents are anticipated to plateau.
The office sector faces dual challenges of elevated interest rates and structural shifts in work patterns post-pandemic. Raichura predicts a 15% decline in office values from 2024 to 2025, with total returns hovering at a mere 2.5% annually until 2028. Job growth turned negative in September, and office use remains below pre-pandemic levels, contributing to an anticipated peak office vacancy rate of 20.5% by the end of 2025.
Apartments face several headwinds, including rental affordability concerns, a surge in newly built apartments entering the market, and rising vacancies. Capital Economics expects apartment property values to decline next year, providing a negative total return on investment before a potential recovery in 2025.
Retail as an Unexpected Bright Spot
Surprisingly, retail emerges as a “bright spot” in Capital Economics’ outlook, with a prediction of total returns close to 6% annually during the five-year forecast period. Despite a cyclical slowdown in 2024 due to economic challenges, retail is anticipated to rebound in the following years.
While retail offers a glimmer of hope, the industrial sector, deemed overvalued by Raichura, is forecasted to experience a 20% peak-to-trough decline in property values, with negative returns expected in 2024 before turning positive in 2025.
Over on Yahoo Finance, people are blaming this on the usual suspects: “Even though you see negative economic report like this seemingly daily, libs continue to think that their hero Biden is absolutely brilliant. One of the most puzzling things I have seen in my lifetime. Unreal.”
Others are being even more critical: “Turn all the empty high rises into condos the illegal immigrants will be needing a place to live once the government hand outs end.”
One commenter really brought down the hammer: “Yes. It’s called fake propaganda. This failure administration literally has not one thing to campaign on. Yet we will will constantly be told to ignore our own eyes, and actual negative economic measurements; and instead be ordered to cheer a fake media-created fictitious future of 1% inflation, interest rate cuts to zero, $1.50 gas, pre-pandemic food prices, and amazing growth that is nowhere near actually occurring. But it’s sure to occur sometime in the future because they say so.”
As Capital Economics anticipates an 8.8% decline in capital values in 2023 and an additional 10.3% drop in 2024, it acknowledges the potential for interest rates to fall soon. The Federal Reserve’s signaled rate cuts in the coming year may alleviate some pressure, offering a silver lining amid the commercial real estate market’s broader challenges.
In the face of predicted declines in commercial real estate values, how might investors strategize to navigate the challenging landscape and identify potential opportunities for growth?
In the context of rising interest rates, what steps can property owners take to mitigate risks and maintain the value of their real estate assets?
For potential homebuyers, how could the anticipated decline in apartment property values impact the affordability and attractiveness of real estate investments?
These are just some of the questions we can’t help but ask. What are your thoughts on this topic?