In a recent video by real estate agent Michael Bordenaro, he talked about an important trend in the housing market. Despite significant drops in mortgage rates, the expected surge in home buyer activity has failed to materialize. Let’s delve into the insights Bordenaro provided and explore the disconnect between experts’ predictions and the current reality of the real estate landscape.
The Mortgage Rate Plunge
Bordenaro highlights a substantial drop in mortgage rates, plummeting from 8% in October to as low as 6.6% for well-qualified borrowers within a month and a half. This drastic reduction, typically anticipated to attract home buyers, has not yielded the expected increase in closed sales and mortgage applications.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Bordenaro notes a peculiar surge in mortgage refinancing rather than a rush of new home purchases. Despite interest rates hovering around 7%, refinance applications have a noticeable uptick, especially among those with government-backed VA and FHA loans.
Bordenaro attributes this anomaly to a broader trend of financial strain as people seek to extract equity from their homes, perhaps signaling economic unease.
Bordenaro challenges the notion that lower rates alone will reinvigorate the housing market, and instead focuses on the critical factor of affordability.
While rates have decreased, the prevailing housing prices remain beyond the average buyer’s reach. He argues that the impact of lower rates is more pronounced in higher-end markets, whereas most potential buyers cannot afford homes at current price points.
Market Response and Sales Data
Examining sales data, Bordenaro uncovers a stark contrast between expectations and reality. Despite a slight uptick in home sales activity in November, the overall trend reveals a 7.3% decrease from the same period in 2022. This challenges the narrative of a pent-up demand waiting to be unleashed by lower mortgage rates.
Bordenaro issues a warning sign regarding the surge in refinancing, attributing it to a potential economic downturn. He suggests that people, driven by financial strain could be using their homes as a source of immediate funds, a strategy that could lead to foreclosures or short sales in the future.
He also briefly explores the list of top housing markets for November 2023, emphasizing that many of the hottest markets are those with relatively affordable median prices. Bordenaro predicts potential investment opportunities in these areas, even as he cautions against the risk of these locales becoming victims of their own success, similar to Florida’s recent real estate bubble.
People in the YouTube comments are adding their own valuable insights: “Yup, people seem to be forgetting what the primary purpose is for a house. The Rule: Only buy a house when you can afford it and pay the mortgage so you don’t end up giving it back three years later. And: never pay more for a house than it’s truly worth.”
“If a used home cost twice to build new, it’s overpriced. If it cost, three times to build new it’s outrageous.”, another commenter added.
Other also shared some knowledge about the situation in Florida: “You have to also add the rising costs of home and auto insurance (if you can get insurance) to any price, rising HOA fees and the condo crisis is greatly affecting our desire to buy in Florida as well. We were ready to buy a few years ago but now we are just staying put. And yes, the rising costs of everything else have affected our willingness to buy.”
Relationship Dynamics and Real Estate
Bordenaro’s comments challenge prevailing notions about the impact of dropping mortgage rates on the housing market. His observations provide us with a critical lens that can help us better understand the dynamics of the current real estate climate. As we can see, it is navigating complexities related to affordability, economic stability, and shifting buyer behaviors, so a lot of questions remain.
How can the disconnect between dropping mortgage rates and the lack of increased home buyer activity reshape our understanding of market dynamics and consumer behavior?
In a world where refinancing surges despite higher interest rates, what implications does this hold for the financial health of individuals and the broader economy?
Are traditional indicators of housing market health, such as lower mortgage rates, becoming less reliable predictors of buyer behavior, and what new factors should be considered?