In the dynamic landscape of the real estate market, an intriguing paradox has emerged: no matter how high mortgage rates ascend, the trajectory of home prices persists in setting remarkable records. The latest insights from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index underscore this phenomenon, revealing a 0.7% surge in September from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks the eighth consecutive month of growth and, notably, an all-time high for the index.
Delving into the specifics, the index, which meticulously monitors the sales prices of homes in the 20 largest U.S. cities, demonstrated a 0.7% uptick in September from the preceding month. Although it fell just short of economists’ expectations of a 0.8% increase, the index’s year-over-year growth of 3.9% aligns with Bloomberg’s predictions. These statistics illuminate the market’s resilience, standing strong amidst the dual challenges of rising mortgage rates and a persistent scarcity of housing inventory.
Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, admired the market’s robustness, emphasizing the remarkable breadth of its strength. He pointed out that the increase in mortgage rates throughout the year has indeed curtailed the quantity of homes sold. However, the relative dearth of homes available for sale has been a stalwart support for prices. Lazzara noted, “Unless higher rates or exogenous events lead to general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results.”
Zooming in on specific cities, Detroit, San Diego, and New York emerge as the vanguards of growth, showcasing annual increases of 6.7%, 6.5%, and 6.3%, respectively. The private sector’s data complements these findings, indicating a 2.8% uptick in the national median home prices for all resale housing types, reaching an average of $394,300 in September. This upward trajectory, however, contrasts sharply with a 15.4% decline in housing transaction activity during the same period, as reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, shed light on the persistent challenge of limited inventory and low housing affordability, stressing the need for an influx of housing supply to invigorate home sales. “For the third straight month, home prices are up from a year ago, confirming the pressing need for more housing supply,” he told Yahoo. “As has been the case throughout this year, limited inventory and low housing affordability continue to hamper home sales…”
The surge in new home sales, a 12.3% increase in September, has also played a role in the overarching price surge, with the median sales price for new constructions reaching $418,000.
The overarching narrative of escalating prices, however, unfolds against the backdrop of a mounting affordability crisis exacerbated by the confluence of rising home prices and higher mortgage rates. Today’s homebuyers face borrowing costs that have nearly tripled since the summer of 2021 when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate touched a low of 2.77%. The current rate well surpasses 7%, a stark reminder of the economic shift within a relatively short timeframe.
Jessica Lautz, NAR’s Deputy Chief Economist, emphasized the struggles of buyers in a market characterized by higher interest rates and escalating home prices. Lautz posited that a potential drop in interest rates could attract a surge of demand into the market, potentially bidding up home prices unless accompanied by a simultaneous increase in housing inventory.
The NAR’s affordability index for September, standing at 94.1, paints a vivid picture of the challenging landscape. Anything below 100 on this index signifies an unaffordable market, with a lower number indicating a more pronounced lack of affordability.
Interestingly, higher mortgage rates are not only influencing affordability but are also acting as a constraint on inventory levels. Homeowners, cognizant of the prevailing low-interest rate environment, are exhibiting reluctance to sell, contributing to a delicate balance between supply and demand.
As of the end of September, NAR reported inventory at 1.13 million, a modest 2.7% increase from August but a notable 8.1% decrease from the previous year at 1.23 million. This limited availability equates to a mere 3.4 months of supply, falling significantly short of the balanced and healthy market standard of six months.
Even as November ushers in a recent decline in mortgage rates, the prospect of relief for buyers remains uncertain. Jessica Lautz cautioned that a drop in interest rates might trigger a surge in demand, potentially inflating home prices further unless it is accompanied by a substantial increase in housing inventory. The intricate interplay of market dynamics continues to unfold, keeping both prospective buyers and industry analysts on their toes, navigating the complex dance of prices, rates, and inventory.