In a recent CNBC interview, renowned pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz discussed the current state of the 2024 presidential race, unveiling surprising insights into President Biden’s approval ratings and the concerns of his once-loyal supporters.
The Disillusionment Dilemma
President Biden’s approval rating hit a new low at 30% in January, leaving many Americans dissatisfied with his performance and raising questions about his ability to secure a second term. Luntz delved into a focus group that showcased a significant enthusiasm gap among Biden voters.
“How many of you voted for Joe Biden in 2020?” Luntz asked, prompting unanimous raised hands. However, when questioned about their intentions for 2024, not a single hand was raised. This apparent shift in allegiance hints at a growing disillusionment among Biden’s base.
According to Luntz, the disappointment among former Biden voters stems from more than just concerns about inflation.
The focus group revealed broader anxieties, particularly related to immigration and its consequences at the border. While there is no outright animosity toward Biden, the predominant sentiment is one of letdown.
Age, Energy, and the Future
Interestingly, Luntz highlighted that the disillusionment with Biden isn’t translating into an embrace of Donald Trump. Instead, it revolves around the perception that Biden is too old to lead the nation effectively. The focus group participants expressed a desire for a leader who can bring passion, energy, and a clear plan for the future, a sentiment that poses a warning for the Biden campaign.
Contrary to expectations, Luntz pointed out that Donald Trump, despite facing criticism and legal challenges, is gaining traction. African American males under 40 and the critical Latino vote are showing increased support for Trump, marking a notable shift since the last election.
In a bold assertion, Luntz declared, “Make no mistake, Joe Biden is the weakest incumbent in America since Jimmy Carter in 1980.” He drew parallels to the 2016 election, cautioning that Biden’s current standing doesn’t guarantee the final outcome in the upcoming election.
The Third-Party Wildcard
A unique aspect of the 2024 race is the potential designation of either winner as a lame duck immediately after taking office. With no possibility of a further term, the focus remains on the short-term challenges facing the nation rather than long-term strategies.
As the conversation turned to third-party candidates, Luntz noted that there’s a substantial base for a third-party contender, starting with a formidable 20%.
While historically third-party candidates face challenges, the current dissatisfaction with the major contenders could make this election an exception.
People in the comments added their reasons for not wanting to vote for Biden: “As a young person, most young people don’t like Biden now because his response on Gaza, before Gaza a lot of friends said Biden was old but good, not great but good.”
Another commenter added: “The biggest take away for me is that more blacks and Hispanics are going towards Trump. This is a big problem for Biden.. better take it seriously.”
Others want drastic changes: “We need a new president the whole way around. Neither Trump nor Biden. Someone competent and able to be good for the people and actually build this country. Someone new! I dont get why ppl think these are the only two options..”
And some raise interesting points: “Voting for someone who is a criminal con man over someone who is “just too old” is honestly the most American thing ever.”
A Serious Warning to the Biden Administration
In a parting note, Luntz delivered a serious warning to the Biden administration. He suggested that, given the current trajectory, Joe Biden might be the weakest candidate against Donald Trump. The need for a compelling vision for the next four years becomes paramount as voters are increasingly focused on the future, not the past.
As the 2024 election unfolds, these insights from Frank Luntz could be pivotal in shaping campaign strategies and candidates’ approaches to address the evolving concerns of the American electorate.
What are your thoughts? In light of the disillusionment among Biden’s base, what policy changes or actions do you believe the administration should prioritize to regain voter trust and enthusiasm?
How much significance do you attribute to the perception that Biden is too old to lead effectively? Should a leader’s age be a defining factor in the voters’ decision-making process?
The unexpected support for Donald Trump among certain demographics raises questions about changing political landscapes. What factors do you think contribute to Trump’s resurgence, and how might it impact the 2024 election?