The stranglehold of baby boomers on the housing market has reached alarming levels, according to a recent analysis by Redfin. Empty nesters, defined as baby boomers with one to two people in the household, now possess a staggering 28% of the nation’s large homes, leaving millennials with kids to grapple for a mere 14%, reveals the report.
The Boomers’ Dominance
Redfin’s examination, leveraging U.S. census data from 2022, sheds light on the reasons behind boomers’ outsized ownership of large homes. With more than half of boomers owning their homes outright and benefiting from incredibly low mortgage rates, financial incentives to downsize are practically nonexistent.
The median monthly cost of homeownership for boomers, including insurance and property taxes, stands at a modest $612. In stark contrast, millennials face a daunting median mortgage payment of $2,361.
Millennials, struggling against a tight housing supply, find it increasingly difficult to locate and afford homes. Redfin points to a “lock-in” effect that has severely restricted the availability of existing homes for sale.
Meanwhile, pandemic-induced housing booms have led to substantial increases in home prices, making the dream of home ownership elusive for many millennials.
Affordability Crisis
The affordability crisis reached its zenith in 2023, earning the dubious title of the least affordable homebuying year on record. Redfin’s report acknowledges the disparity in wealth accumulation, with boomers holding half of the U.S. wealth, largely in real estate.
Boomer households saw their wealth surge from $17 trillion to an astounding $150 trillion since the 1980s.
As Redfin’s Dana Anderson and Sheharyar Bokhari highlight, boomers benefited from an abundance of newly built homes and favorable economic conditions during their prime earning years.
The report underscores the rapid appreciation of home values, growing four times faster than incomes over several decades.
Challenges for Millennials
While boomers enjoy the fruits of their housing investments, millennials face challenges in breaking into the housing market.
Despite entering the market in the 1980s, facing mortgage rates as high as 18%, boomers had more time to buy and refinance, placing them ahead of millennials. Consequently, millennials are forced into a rental landscape, with nearly 25% of three-bedroom-plus rentals across the country occupied by millennials with kids.
The evolving landscape, documented by Anderson and Bokhari, reveals a significant shift over the last decade. A mere 10 years ago, young families were as likely as empty nesters to own large homes.
However, the prevailing trend indicates an unlikelihood of a sudden surge in large homes hitting the market. Boomers, predominantly in their 60s, show little motivation to sell, maintaining low housing costs and self-sufficiency in managing their homes.
Anticipated Changes
Despite a slight anticipated improvement in affordability and the easing of the lock-in effect, a mere trickle—not a flood—of inventory is expected to reach the market, according to Bokhari. The housing divide continues to deepen, leaving millennials grappling with the elusive dream of spacious homeownership.
What do you think about this? Are Boomers unwittingly contributing to a generational housing crisis, leaving millennials struggling to find adequate homes for their growing families?
Is the current housing landscape creating a socio-economic divide between generations, with baby boomers sitting on large, appreciated properties while millennials face the challenges of affordability and limited supply?
How will the substantial wealth held by boomers in real estate impact the broader economic dynamics, and what role does it play in the ongoing debate about wealth inequality?
